Description: Investment Fallacies: The Fallacy of the Fed Model

Description: This article examines how parameter uncertainty leads to uncertainty in Value at Risk VaR estimates. Lacking a closed form solution, we use a first order approximation of VaR to map parameter changes into changes in the VaR value. When the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates is normal, this implies a normal approximation of the confidence interval about VaR. We describe this approximation in detail and explore some extensions to risk factor modeling.

Description: E-book contains 16 topical essays that express the opinions and thoughts of a number of authors on the subject of Investment Fallacies.

Description: The financial industry has become increasingly interested in understanding and managing financial risks as well as business risk. While often perceived in terms of risk reduction or mitigation in the past, todays focus has expanded to improve performance and add to the value of the firm. Many banks and securities firms have built risk management areas to better manage their financial risks. Some insurance companies are moving in a similar direction, This session focuses on quantification of various financial risks insurers take on. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 24, No. 1. Maui Spring Meeting, June 15-17, 1998, Session 87PD.

Description: Description of new regulatory risk disclosure for private fund advisers.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Mathematical modeling of social phenomena

Description: Invest Fallacies: Active management overall performs different than passive management

Description: Investment Fallacies: On the Validity of Common Portfolio Return Assumptions

Description: Much of the push for ERM has come from regulators and rating agencies, but it is being applied in internal company decision-making as well. This paper reviews the progress made and the needs still outstanding in two key areas of application: optimal capital level for an insurer and risk-adjusted profitability of business units. The basic conclusion is that progress has been made in these areas, but more is needed. Building models is not emphasized—it will be assumed that a state-of-the art model is available. The emphasis is on using such models in decision-making.

Description: Investment Fallacies: A real-world approach to Value at Risk